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20111201
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what happened in libya, and more importantly, what is unfolding now in syria? they did not exactly stick to the model. this gets you into a variety of factors that have to do with the nature of society, demography's, sectarian divide, leadership, their past experiences, and most important, their willingness to use force to suppress and kill their own people, which clearly the military that worked for mr. mubarak did not want to do. we're seeing a different side of things in syria. i would be a bit weary of trying to the price assessments of how leaders and political elites would respond to larger crowds. greg? cautions are well taken. what strikes me when i did this work looking about the agencies, there are surprisingly little uses of methods and technology in most intelligence analysis. computers can be used for search, not much beyond that, but there is data that is available, not definitive, but if you are trying to see patterns come out and cover all patterns, remember old patterns, remember hypotheses you have forgotten, making much more use of at it and computers i think is
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